Hezbollah is grappling with the aftermath of a major conflict with Israel, which significantly weakened its military capabilities and killed many of its leaders and members [Getty]
Hezbollah is reportedly staying out of the ongoing conflict in northern Syria, which saw rebel groups, led by the hardline Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, capture Syrian regime-held areas in a surprise offensive on 27 November, as the Lebanese group reels from its recent war with Israel.
Several Lebanese media outlets reported this week that the group was not going to participate in the conflict in Syria, with reports that Hezbollah had withdrawn its forces from the neighbouring country in recent weeks after Israeli strikes targeted the group’s facilities there.
The group, which played a pivotal role in supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the conflict which broke out in 2011, appears unlikely to take on a similar role in the renewed fighting there and its officials have remained silent on the latest developments in northern Syria.
It comes as Hezbollah grapples with the aftermath of a major conflict with Israel, which ended last week. The fighting significantly weakening its military capabilities and killed most of its senior leaders, including its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah.
Lebanese media reports indicate that Hezbollah withdrew many of its forces from Syria in recent weeks to focus on the war with Israel in Lebanon. However, Lebanese MTV reports that the exact number of fighters remaining in Syria was unclear.
It said that it was likely that some of the group’s fighters had remained in its two strongholds – al-Qusayr and Bloudan, but their numbers and capabilities were unknown and their roles had appeared to be limited to those specific border areas.
Diminished role in Syria
Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHOR), told the pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah fighters were not involved in the ongoing battles in northern Syria.
Similarly, Riad Kahwaji, head of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center (INEGMA), also told the outlet that Hezbollah’s role in Syria had “diminished” with many fighters recently sent back to Lebanon.
Kahwaji said it would be “challenging” for Hezbollah to re-engage militarily in Syria due to the ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Ali Al-Amin, political activist and editor-in-chief of the Lebanese Janoubia news site, argued that Hezbollah’s presence in northern Syria diminished as forces were redirected to support the war in Lebanon.
He downplayed the likelihood of Hezbollah’s involvement, noting that further engagement in Syria could harm the group’s standing, even among its own supporters, especially as Assad’s position in the region has shifted.
The French language Lebanese daily, L’Orient-Le Jour, also highlighted that Hezbollah would be “forced to observe the offensive from a distance”, arguing that the group would now be focused on domestic issues.
The outlet further argued that the Assad regime had “distanced” itself from the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, made up of Iran and its militia allies, since the start of the war on Gaza to avoid provoking Israel – an approach that was reportedly encouraged by Arab states.
Heavy toll from Israel war
Meanwhile, back in Lebanon, Hezbollah is grappling with the aftermath of its latest conflict with Israel, which ended last week and inflicted devastating losses on the group.
In addition to its senior leaders, preliminary estimates cited by Lebanon’s Annahar daily suggest the the group had lost between 3,500 and 4,000 members during the conflict, with an additional 10,000 injured or wounded.
The figures far exceed the losses reported during the six-week long 2006 war with Israel, when Hezbollah announced the deaths of approximately 260 members.
Hezbollah’s latest losses not only include fighters but also technical staff, communications experts, engineers, doctors, and nurses – nine of whom were either volunteers or full-time personnel.
Initial lists indicate that at least 500 individuals were still classified as “missing”, with many were likely to have been killed in Israeli strikes that employed advanced, high-impact weaponry.
Approximately 60 fighters remain unaccounted for, with no remains recoverable due to the use of highly destructive missiles, some reportedly deployed for the first time.
Specialised teams have been tasked with searching for bodies under rubble in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs. However, the final count of losses cannot be completed until Israeli forces fully withdraw from the front-line villages they continue to occupy.
Hezbollah’s human toll will only become clear after the group submits its “Resistance Martyrs List” to the Lebanese Army.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s outgoing health minister, Firas Abiad said on Wednesday that at least 4,047 people had been killed due to Israel’s war, including 790 women and 316 children. This figure is likely to rise as it does not include all the fighters Hezbollah is believed to have lost.
The war has wounded at least 16,593 people since 8 October 2023, when the cross-border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel began.
