On Wednesday morning Lebanon awoke to quiet skies, as the deadly hum of Israeli drones and the roar of warplanes had subsided. A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by France and the US, ended over a year of intense fighting between the two adversaries.
Thousands of people packed their bags and belongings, climbed into cars, and headed south to their homes and villages – or what was left of them. The traffic jams on the southern highway were jubilant, as the returnees waved Hezbollah flags and raised their hands in signs of victory.
“Return proudly to your villages, to your fig and olive trees, because you have defeated the enemy,” Lebanon’s parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri told displaced Lebanese in a televised address on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, much of the world is watching to see if the vague perimeters of the ceasefire agreement will hold.
“A lot of people have a lot to gain, but there’s also a lot of wishful thinking, and conflicting interpretations that are on the table simultaneously,” Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg told The New Arab.
The truce builds on the terms of UN Resolution 1701 – which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah -and mandates UNIFIL and the Lebanese army as the exclusive armed presence south of Lebanon’s Litani River, excluding Hezbollah and Israel.
This time around, the deal expands the zone set to be free of Hezbollah weaponry and stipulates that only Lebanese “official military and security forces” are authorised to carry arms.
It gives a 60-day timeframe for Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters to withdraw, supervised by thousands of Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeeping troops on the ground and monitored by a US-led international committee.
Israel has pledged to aggressively respond to a breach of any terms, although what would exactly constitute such a breach remains unclear.
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‘A ceasefire without a cessation of fire’
Since the ceasefire went into force at 4am on Wednesday, there have been no major aerial attacks, but skirmishes have continued along the Israel-Lebanon border. The Israeli army has warned displaced Lebanese not to return to evacuated southern villages where Israeli troops are still present.
US envoy Amos Hochstein in an interview with Arabic-language channel, Asharq News, said that the Israeli army would maintain its positions in southern Lebanon until the Lebanese army has the capacity to deploy soldiers to those areas, which “will take time”.
According to the terms of the agreement, the withdrawal of Israeli forces south of the Blue Line and the parallel deployment of Lebanese soldiers to the border depends “upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities”.
“Hostilities” at the Lebanon-Israel border have not yet ceased.
In a statement on Wednesday, the Israeli army said it was firing at “suspects identified in several areas” and that it would respond to any violations of the cease-fire agreement. An Israeli drone reportedly targeted a car in the southern village of Markaba on Thursday and wounded several people.
Three journalists were shot at and wounded by Israeli troops in the village of Khiam on Wednesday, around six kilometres from the border. They were there to report on the displaced returning to the village, which has been under heavy fighting in recent days.
Israeli troops are still stationed in the village and its residents have been unable to enter.
“It’s good to have a ceasefire, but the problem is, it’s a ceasefire without a cessation of fire,” Mairav Zonszein, a Tel Aviv-based analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told The New Arab.
“The perimetres of the ceasefire are quite broad,” Zonszein said. “It’s going to be tested in the field, as Hezbollah and Israel have always operated – determining the new rules of the game and new security reality in the field.”
Israel wants ‘freedom of action’
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a televised speech on Tuesday that Israel would “respond with force” to any Hezbollah violation of a ceasefire.
“If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack… If it tries to rebuild the terror infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it fires a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack,” Netanyahu said.
“Netanyahu is seeking acknowledgement [for Israel’s] unlimited potential to do whatever it wants,” Goldberg said. The Israeli premier “imagines the deal [for Lebanon], like his dream deal for Gaza, being guaranteed the freedom to do whatever Israel deems proper,” Goldberg added.
In early September, Israeli officials called for creating a “south Lebanon buffer zone”, as the only way to ensure residents in northern Israel could return home. This raises concern of continued Israeli military operations along the border, even after the 60-day withdrawal period specified in the deal.
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“Israel wants more freedom of action like it has in Syria, where it can bomb a weapons transfer in real time,” Zonszein said, with Israel’s ability to act forcefully in Lebanon dependent on the US and the extent of its backing.
The new deal gives a greater role to the US in overseeing Hezbollah’s withdrawal, compared to the 2006 resolution, the ICG analyst added.
The US will chair an international committee, hosted by UNIFIL and including France, which will monitor, verify, and assist in ensuring the enforcement of the agreement. A US letter to Israeli authorities, leaked by Israeli media, stipulates that the US “recognizes Israel’s rights to respond to Hezbollah threats”.
The US and France are also responsible for coordinating and supporting the deployment of 10,000 Lebanese soldiers to southern Lebanon, who will supposedly prevent Hezbollah’s armed presence.
Will Hezbollah disarm?
Hezbollah parliamentarian, Hassan Fadlallah, on Wednesday said that the group would cooperate with the army’s deployment in south Lebanon, but said the group’s members could not be forced to leave their villages.
He added that Hezbollah had “no visible weapons or bases there”.
Videos circulated on social media show southern villagers welcoming the convoys of Lebanese soldiers, throwing rice to celebrate their new guests.
Mohanad Hage Ali, an analyst with the Carnegie Middle East Center, said that Hezbollah would likely withdraw its heavy weapons and start to implement the agreement. “Hezbollah has little ability to reconstruct a reality in which it can resume the war,” he told The New Arab.
Israel has wiped out the group’s top leadership and inflicted immense damage on Lebanese Shia communities, where Hezbollah draws most of its support. “At the end of the day, there’s a huge level of destruction, across all Lebanese Shia communities, and they need a durable ceasefire to begin to focus on reconstruction,” Hage Ali added.
However, he noted that a complete disarmament of the group “is a long-term project”. “I don’t think Hezbollah is ready for this, they don’t seem willing to discuss this now,” he said.
Hassan Kotob, an analyst with the Lebanese Center for Research and Consulting, told The New Arab that disarming Hezbollah is the “second phase” of the war.
“On the shoulders of the Lebanese government and army is to prevent smuggling, unarm Hezbollah, and try to make sure Hezbollah is not re-building,” Kotob said. “I don’t think Hezbollah will comply.”
Kotob noted his concern about the likely confrontations to occur between Hezbollah and the army, as it carries out the mandates of the deal. “We’re going into a new era, where there will be new problems, if Hezbollah refuses to submit,” he said.
Israelis not convinced
While the ceasefire was touted as a victory by Hezbollah and its supporters, and celebrations erupted throughout Lebanon, Israelis were “ambivalent”, Goldberg said, with many unconvinced of its prospects for peace.
Unlike the southern Lebanese, who rushed back to their villages, many Israeli residents of the north are still fearful to return.
“They’re not eager to return to their homes, because they don’t feel security,” Goldberg said. He added that most Israelis, across the political spectrum, support “the notion that the only option Israel has at the moment is a military option”.
“In Israel, there’s a lot of opposition to the ceasefire,” Zonszein said. “There isn’t a sense of relief, it’s just a bandaid. [The displaced residents in the north] don’t understand why you could make a deal with such a formidable adversary [Hezbollah] and not a deal with Hamas, which is much weaker, and has hostages,” she said.
Hanna Davis is a freelance journalist reporting on politics, foreign policy, and humanitarian affairs.
Follow her on Twitter: @hannadavis341
