YR4 asteroid likely to miss Sudan after NASA probability scare

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The YR4 asteroid, which scientists said had a realistic chance of hitting Planet Earth, now appears to be moving off course, to the relief of many worried about the possible devastating effects impact could have.

Among the countries YR4 could hit was Sudan, the site of many asteroid impacts in the past with NASA projecting the possible date for 22 December 2032.

After scientists put the chances of the 40 to 100 metre space rock making impact with earth at a worrying 3.1 percent earlier this month, the odds have been sharply reduced to less than one percent.

Last week, the space agency said the chances of impact are now just 0.28 percent, after a worrying rise in the probability over the past two months.

Despite this, the increase of it hitting the moon went up from 0.8 percent to 1 percent.

Scientists estimated that if it hit the earth, it could have the equivalent power of 15,000,000 tons of TNT.

They calculated that northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, or sub-Saharan Africa were possible zones areas of impact with Sudan being one possible candidate.

One of Sudan’s most recent experiences with asteroids was in 2008, when the 4.1-meter-wide 2008 TC3 asteroid exploded about 37 kilometres above Sudan, leaving fragments scattered across the Nubian Desert.

A meteoroid is a fragment of an asteroid or comet that travels through space. When it enters Earth’s atmosphere, it can fragment into smaller pieces as it burns up, creating a meteor.

The 600 meteorites that struck Sudan, known as Almahata Sitta, marked the first time scientists successfully predicted an asteroid impact before it entered Earth’s atmosphere, though they were slightly off in pinpointing the final impact site.

Almahata Sitta – as the meteorite became known – sparked a wave of scavengers searching for fragments, each containing thousands of micro-diamonds and other precious minerals, fetching huge sums on the market.

The rock was said to have belonged to a lost planet that was one of the first bodies to orbit the earth, millions of years ago.

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